Four Israeli clubs are fighting through European qualifying this fortnight, and all four already know who is waiting at the next turnstile if they get there. ONE has run the rule over the rivals standing between Hapoel Beer Sheva, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Tel Aviv and a place in the lucrative league phases of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
Beer Sheva have the most direct route to glamour. They opened their Champions League third qualifying-round tie away to Red Star Belgrade on Monday, with Serbia's giants standing between them and a playoff spot worth a place in the competition's league phase. Get past Red Star, and Beer Sheva would meet the winner of Aarhus of Denmark and Azerbaijan's Sabah for the right to reach the Champions League proper.
ONE rates that potential tie against Aarhus close to a coin flip. The Danish champions of 2024 have been unsettled by managerial upheaval and, according to the outlet, have been playing home fixtures away from their own stadium while it undergoes renovation — hardly the ideal build-up for a club still hunting a first appearance in the competition's new-look league phase.
Even a defeat to Red Star wouldn't end Beer Sheva's continental summer: the losing side in that Champions League playoff drops into the Europa League playoff round. ONE has pencilled in Viktoria Plzen of the Czech Republic as that fallback opponent, and gives the southern club roughly a 40% chance of getting past a side with regular European pedigree.
Maccabi Tel Aviv's route runs through the Europa League. Having eliminated Moldova's Sheriff Tiraspol 6-0 on aggregate, including a 1-0 win in the second leg, the Yellow-and-Blue now face Bulgaria's CSKA Sofia in the third qualifying round, with the first leg played in Batumi, Georgia — Maccabi's adopted continental home while the security situation in Israel keeps its European fixtures abroad.
Win that, and Maccabi would face Greek Cup holders OFI Crete in the playoff round, with the Cretans hosting the first leg on August 20 and the return in Israel a week later. ONE calls this the friendliest draw of the four ties, pointing to OFI's poor recent record against clubs of Maccabi's calibre and giving the Israeli champions around a 70% chance of advancing.
Slip up against OFI, though, and Maccabi would instead land in the Conference League playoff against Switzerland's Lugano — a much tighter assignment that ONE scores at roughly 50-50. Either way, reaching the playoff round already guarantees Maccabi a place in continental football beyond the summer, with the only question being which competition.
Beitar Jerusalem's path is the toughest of the four, and it starts with Austria Wien. After eliminating Montenegro's Sutjeska, Beitar host the Austrian side in Romania — first leg in Ploiești on Thursday, before a return trip to Vienna on August 13 — in the Conference League's third qualifying round.
Survive that, and Beitar would run into either Braga of Portugal or Belarus's Dinamo Minsk for a playoff spot. ONE leans heavily toward Braga advancing and gives Beitar only around a 15% chance in that scenario, describing a club with a Europa League semi-final on its recent résumé as nearly the equal of the continent's very best sides at this level.
Hapoel Tel Aviv have the unenviable draw of the summer. The Reds squeezed past Bulgaria's Ludogorets 4-2 on aggregate, a tie settled by a brace from Emmanuel Boateng, and now face Poland's GKS Katowice over two legs on August 6 and 12 for the right to reach the Conference League playoff round.
Waiting there, regardless of which of Hapoel or Katowice comes through, is Atalanta — the 2024 Europa League champions, now rebuilding under Maurizio Sarri after Gian Piero Gasperini left for Roma last year. ONE puts Hapoel Tel Aviv's chances at just 5%, by some distance the longest odds facing any Israeli club this window, and frames a possible meeting with the Italian side as closer to a lottery ticket than a football match.
Taken together, the draws capture where Israeli football sits in Europe right now: genuine contenders in every one of the continent's three club competitions, but drawing some of the sternest possible opposition at the business end of qualifying, and doing it all on the road because of the security situation at home. Results from the third qualifying-round ties over the coming days will determine which of these rivalries actually materialise.
