Spain lifted the World Cup in Argentina's own backyard of grief three weeks ago, but two of the matches on their route to the final are now sitting in a betting watchdog's file marked 'irregular'.
The Copenhagen Group, an independent body that advises the Council of Europe on the manipulation of sports competitions, says it monitored all 104 games at the 2026 tournament and issued seven 'yellow alerts' — its second-tier classification for matches showing multiple signs of unusual activity, such as odd betting swings or suspicious chatter on social media. Two of those seven involve Spain.
The first came from Spain's group-stage meeting with debutants Cape Verde, which finished 0-0 in a result almost nobody in the football world expected. On the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, some $4.8 million was wagered specifically against Spain winning the match — an amount the Copenhagen Group flagged as statistically striking given Spain's status as tournament favourites. Reports at the time noted at least one bettor who had staked heavily against Cape Verde holding on lost roughly $1 million when the draw held.
The second concerns Spain's 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, also in the Group H stage. Video review took an unusually long time — about three and a half minutes — before a goal by Barcelona forward Ferran Torres was ruled out for offside. The length of the delay, rather than the decision itself, is what drew the watchdog's attention.
Spain were not alone in being singled out. Among the other five alerts, the Copenhagen Group pointed to the red card shown to South Africa's Themba Zwane in the 84th minute of his side's opening match against Mexico, and to betting markets that opened around Folarin Balogun's disciplinary status before his red card and suspension were controversially overturned following intervention reportedly involving FIFA president Gianni Infantino and US President Donald Trump.
FIFA has firmly rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing. Its own Integrity Task Force, which conducted a parallel review of the tournament, stated flatly that 'no suspicious activity was detected in betting markets and no indications of match manipulation were found in any tournament match' — a direct contradiction of the Copenhagen Group's seven flagged incidents.
Christian Kalb, a betting-industry expert who has previously worked with the Copenhagen Group, cautioned against reading too much into the alerts on their own. He said such signals can stem from entirely legitimate causes — hedging by large liquidity providers or ordinary shifts in market odds — rather than any attempt to fix a result.
Nothing in the report accuses any player, official or federation of wrongdoing, and no disciplinary process has been opened against Spain, Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia over either match. The Copenhagen Group's alerts function as a monitoring tool rather than a finding of guilt, and its own methodology stresses that a 'yellow' rating reflects statistical irregularity, not proof of manipulation.
Spain went on to beat France in the semi-final and edged Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the final to win their second World Cup, meaning the report lands as an awkward footnote to what was otherwise a triumphant tournament for La Roja.
