All three Israeli clubs still alive in European qualifying go into Thursday evening's second legs as heavy favourites with the betting markets, after building commanding first-leg cushions a week ago.
Winner, the Israeli betting operator, has Maccabi Tel Aviv at odds of just 1.25 to see off Sheriff Tiraspol, according to ONE, with a draw priced at 4.40 and an outright win for the Moldovan champions at 6.60 — reflecting just how remote a Maccabi collapse looks after last week's result.
Kenny Miller's side thrashed Sheriff 5-0 away in the first leg of the Europa League second qualifying round on July 23, with Sayed Abu Farchi scoring twice and further goals from Dor Peretz, Sagiv Yehezkal and Issouf Sissokho. The return leg is at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel Aviv, and Maccabi need only avoid a five-goal swing to reach the third qualifying round.
Beitar Jerusalem, under new head coach Almog Cohen, carry a slimmer but still healthy advantage into their Conference League qualifier against AEK Larnaca. ONE reports Winner has Beitar to win outright at 1.95, a draw at 3.10 and an AEK win at 2.95 — odds that make the tie close to a coin-flip on the night, even though Beitar won the first leg 1-0 in Cyprus.
That narrower price gap makes sense given the stakes: a 1-0 lead is the kind that can be overturned by a single away goal or two, and Beitar will need a disciplined defensive display at home in Jerusalem to close it out.
The best value for an upset, per the markets cited by ONE, lies with Hapoel Tel Aviv's opponents. Ludogorets Razgrad are priced at just 1.65 to win outright at home in Razgrad, against 3.75 for an away win for Hapoel and 3.35 for a draw — odds that acknowledge Elyaniv Barda's side are defending a two-goal Conference League lead but travelling to a considerably stronger and more experienced Bulgarian outfit.
Hapoel won the first leg 2-0, with Omri Altman and Chico on the scoresheet in Miskolc, Hungary, where the tie was staged. Barda has guided Hapoel from the second tier to a European campaign in just over a year, and Thursday's trip to the Huvepharma Arena is by some distance the club's toughest test of the qualifying rounds.
Taken together, the numbers tell a familiar story of this Israeli European summer: after strong first legs, Maccabi look all but through, Beitar are favoured but far from safe, and Hapoel — despite their cushion — are the outsiders on the night as they defend a lead in Bulgaria.
